New Associate Professor in African Studies to explore the relationship between statistics and welfare
On 1 September, Alena Thiel takes up her position at the Centre of African Studies. She brings with her the five-year ERC project ModelFutures, an ethnographic study of how official statistics are produced in practice. The focus is on four African countries – Ghana, Senegal, Kenya and Botswana – and the project examines how states come to “know” their populations through statistics and, on this basis, develop welfare policies.
At the heart of any welfare policy lies the assumption that states “know” their populations and can make qualified decisions about their welfare. But what happens if the available data is incomplete or uncertain? This is precisely the question ModelFutures seeks to address.
In the project, Alena Thiel and her team will observe statisticians in Ghana, Senegal, Kenya and Botswana and investigate how they adapt international statistical models and find solutions when data is missing.
- With ModelFutures I want to open the black box of statistical innovation in practice. My aim is to study how statisticians in national statistical organisations, relevant ministries and international organisations work with data – how they adapt standard models to the data at hand, and mobilise data science approaches, and maybe also unexpected sources such as WhatsApp groups or informal networks to fill gaps, says Alena Thiel.
As an example, in Ghana, key statistical products are often externally funded, to the effect that data is not always available in the format needed for re-use in other calculations. However, statistical training in Ghana has historically been a center of excellence for West Africa and produces a tightly knit statistical community where experts regularly engage in cross-cutting exchanges of expertise, and at times missing data.
Projections shape the future
All four countries are undergoing a demographic transition. In the coming years increasing numbers of young people will enter the labour market. This creates major opportunities for economic growth – but only if welfare policy keeps pace.
- I am particularly interested in how projections of demographic trends inform the intergenerational distribution of resources. Ghana, Senegal, Kenya and Botswana are currently experiencing profound demographic change, with more and more people becoming part of the labour force. This opens up immense economic potential – but harnessing it requires investments in health, education, employment creation and female labour market inclusion, explains Alena Thiel.
Statistical innovation
While the four African countries face challenges such as data gaps, their statisticians’ creative practices also hold lessons for other countries and international organisations.
- The statisticians who’s practice we will observe develop highly creative solutions – from adapting models to generating proxies or mobilising fragmented data sources informally. Such backstage work is essential to statistical production yet overlooked in the presentation of finished products. Precisely for this reason, it holds valuable insights for the international community about how statistical and welfare systems evolve together, says Alena Thiel.